Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate

Miguel B. Araujo; Babak Naimi

Projections by models reveal the existence of likely seasonal changes in climate suitability for SARS-CoV-2 ( Figure 3 ). From April to September, much of higher latitude regions of the southern hemisphere are projected to face increases in climate suitability for outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. That includes much of southern America, southern Africa and Southern Australia. Models also project that high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere might be badly hit by the virus as temperatures rise during the summer period. Areas exposed to increases in climate suitability for the virus include Canada and Russia, but also the Scandinavian countries. High elevation areas in the Andes and the Himalayas share the same prospects. Concurrently, areas that, as we speak, are of extreme concern in the northern hemisphere (chiefly Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK, and USA) could witness a reduction in climate suitability for spread of SARS-CoV-2 between June and September. Beyond September and until the end of May, . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.