Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde
Title: Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: h86mpz6o_11
Snippet: The parameter b is a horizontal shift parameter and c is the growth parameter. It can be thought of as the infection rate in this context. The parameter a denotes the saturation point: Letting time t become larger and larger (we look further and further into the future) shows that y t approaches a as e ct with c > 0 approaches zero. It is well-known that models of this type capture the s-shape of infection numbers quite well. With new data, the g.....
Document: The parameter b is a horizontal shift parameter and c is the growth parameter. It can be thought of as the infection rate in this context. The parameter a denotes the saturation point: Letting time t become larger and larger (we look further and further into the future) shows that y t approaches a as e ct with c > 0 approaches zero. It is well-known that models of this type capture the s-shape of infection numbers quite well. With new data, the green area becomes smaller and approaches the dashed red curve. As this …gure impressively shows, Germany seems to be heading towards a stable number of reported COVID19 infections. This number lies at around 184 thousand individuals and would be reached around early May under the assumption that current RSC are not modi…ed.
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