Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects

Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde

This is the share of sick individuals in the population when the epidemic is over and if the current RSC were preserved forever. The value for the long-run share of infected individuals is therefore computed such that (5) is satis…ed. 11 We …nally …x various parameters such that we match data reported by RKI. To do so, we minimize the Euclidean distance between the reported data and the predicted values of the model. We undertake two separate calibrations, one for each sub-period described above after the discussion of …gure 1. We target a weighted sum of the squared di¤erence between N ever 2 (t) = R t 0 12 (s) N 1 (s) ds and observation and the newly-sick N new 2 (t) = R t t 1 12 (s) N 1 (s) ds and observation. More precisely, parameters a; ; and are obtained from min a; ; ;