A novel approach based on combining deep learning models with statistical methods for COVID-19 time series forecasting

Abbasimehr, Hossein; Paki, Reza; Bahrini, Aram

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the economy and businesses and impacted all facets of people’s lives. It is critical to forecast the number of infected cases to make accurate decisions on the necessary measures to control the outbreak. While deep learning models have proved to be effective in this context, time series augmentation can improve their performance. In this paper, we use time series augmentation techniques to create new time series that take into account the characteristics of the original series, which we then use to generate enough samples to fit deep learning models properly. The proposed method is applied in the context of COVID-19 time series forecasting using three deep learning techniques, (1) the long short-term memory, (2) gated recurrent units, and (3) convolutional neural network. In terms of symmetric mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error measures, the proposed method significantly improves the performance of long short-term memory and convolutional neural networks. Also, the improvement is average for the gated recurrent units. Finally, we present a summary of the top augmentation model as well as a visual representation of the actual and forecasted data for each country.