Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_13
Snippet: In a destination country, we use a Galton-Watson branching process to model the initial spread of the virus. We calculate the extinction probability of each branch initiated by a single imported case, obtaining the probability of a major outbreak as the probability that at least one branch will not go extinct......
Document: In a destination country, we use a Galton-Watson branching process to model the initial spread of the virus. We calculate the extinction probability of each branch initiated by a single imported case, obtaining the probability of a major outbreak as the probability that at least one branch will not go extinct.
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