Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_34
Snippet: In the left of Figure 2 , we can see the risks of American countries as functions of cumulative number of cases C, assuming each country has R loc = 1.6 and their connectivity is their baseline θ. When C exceeds 600,000, with this local reproduction number and without any restriction in importation, outbreaks in the USA and Canada are very likely, while countries in South America (including Mexico), which are all in the green shaded region, stil.....
Document: In the left of Figure 2 , we can see the risks of American countries as functions of cumulative number of cases C, assuming each country has R loc = 1.6 and their connectivity is their baseline θ. When C exceeds 600,000, with this local reproduction number and without any restriction in importation, outbreaks in the USA and Canada are very likely, while countries in South America (including Mexico), which are all in the green shaded region, still have moderate risks. To illustrate the impacts of control measures for the USA and Canada, we reduced R loc to 1.4, and plotted the risks for different levels of reduction in connectivity to China, either due to travel restrictions or entry screening; see Figure 2 on the right. As the number of cases in China approaches one million, such reductions have a limited effect on the risk of outbreak. Figure 1 provides us with scenarios when C remains below certain values.
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