Author: Peter Boldog; Tamas Tekeli; Zsolt Vizi; Attila Denes; Ferenc Bartha; Gergely Rost
Title: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: ecu579el_5
Snippet: To better assess the epidemic risk of 2019-nCoV, among the key parameters to be approximated are the basic reproduction number R 0 and the incubation period. We summarize previous efforts made toward those ends in Table 1 , and present a short summary below. The majority of the estimates for R 0 range between 2 and 3. Obtaining these was done by modeling epidemic trajectories and comparing them to the results of [16] as a baseline [19, 20] , usin.....
Document: To better assess the epidemic risk of 2019-nCoV, among the key parameters to be approximated are the basic reproduction number R 0 and the incubation period. We summarize previous efforts made toward those ends in Table 1 , and present a short summary below. The majority of the estimates for R 0 range between 2 and 3. Obtaining these was done by modeling epidemic trajectories and comparing them to the results of [16] as a baseline [19, 20] , using a negative binomial distribution to generate secondary infections. Liu et al. utilized the exponential growth and maximum likelihood estimation methods and found that the 2019-nCoV may have a higher pandemic risk than SARS-CoV in 2003 [21] .
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