Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu

From the detailed description about traced data, we can know when and what is the state of each infected person and obtain the number of who are in latent (or quarantined latent), infected and hospitalized classes, as shown in Figure 1 , which shows the evolution process of the epidemic in Shaanxi province. Figure 1 (A) gives both newly reported cases and new cases from traced data, and comparison of two time series indicates that the new cases from traced data is about 7 days ahead of the reported cases data. In particular, Figure 1 (B) and (C) give the epidemic status of cases confirmed before February 7 th and 15 th , respectively. Note that although Shaanxi province began to release the case numbers on January 23 rd , 2020, the first imported latent case came to Shaanxi as early as January 10 th , 2020, and the majority of imported cases were latent and came into Shaanxi before the end of January, 2020, as shown in Figure 2 (A). Figure2(B) shows the correlation between the total imported cases and the number of population flow into the Shaanxi province, from which we calculate the proportion of those inflows that are infected.