Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu

Shaanxi province is located northwest of China, adjacent to Hubei in the south. Therefore, except for Xi'an city, the capital of Shaanxi, many confirmed cases are in the southern part of Shaanxi province. It is interesting to note that Health Commission of Shaanxi Province released the case number every day with very detailed information, by which we can know when and who infected whom. Then except for the new reported (or cumulative) number of confirmed cases, we can get the daily number of individuals who are in latent (or quarantined latent), infected and hospitalized compartments, which gives the evolution process of the epidemic in Shaanxi province. We can get the durations from illness onset to the first medical visit, to the hospitalization, and to confirmation of the case. These durations are relatively smaller than those for mainland China or Hubei province [3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 14, 17] , which implies that the control measures implemented in Shaanxi are timely and medical resources are relatively sufficient.