Author: Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu
Title: Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation Document date: 2020_2_29
ID: aoqyx8mk_50
Snippet: Moreover, detailed data records revealed that the time interval between the first visit to a doctor and confirmation was longer, with a median of around 4 days. Then, the number of reported cases is not suitable to identify the model or estimate the parameters due to delays such as report delay, confirmation delay, etc. Therefore, it is not accurate to associate the number of confirmed cases with the number of cases in hospital, which may serious.....
Document: Moreover, detailed data records revealed that the time interval between the first visit to a doctor and confirmation was longer, with a median of around 4 days. Then, the number of reported cases is not suitable to identify the model or estimate the parameters due to delays such as report delay, confirmation delay, etc. Therefore, it is not accurate to associate the number of confirmed cases with the number of cases in hospital, which may seriously overestimate the scale of the epidemic. Therefore, the multiple traced data sets have been employed to identify the proposed discrete stochastic model and estimate the unknown parameters in this work. Consequently, we use the number of individuals in E, I, and H classes form traced data rather than the newly (or cumulative) reported number to parameterize the model.
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