Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model

Hao Xiong; Huili Yan

Since Jan 23rd 2020, after outbreak of the novel atypical pneumonia, government has applied substantial draconian intervention measures to drastically reduce within-population contact rates. These measures include extending the Spring Festival holiday, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, postpone the start of Spring semester, Nurseries and early learning centers closures, cancellation of mass gatherings, wearing masks at public palce, and so on. However, the reported case numbers are still rising rapidly. Simulating the epidemic spreading trend of 2019-nCoV under the control measures are of crucial importance for public health planning and control domestically and internationally. Several earlier publications have given some useful forecasting of 2019-nCoV [4, 5, [8] [9] [10] [11] , but their estimating numbers are too far more than the official data. The estimating of epidemic spreading should consider the effect of actions have been taken to mitigate the spreading. Furthermore, the asymptomatic infection and transmission characters should be considered in the transmission model. Transmission model and parameters are essential for the generation of accurate forecasting of infected population and spreading trend [12] .