Author: Hao Xiong; Huili Yan
Title: Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model Document date: 2020_2_12
ID: er3zmcz2_38
Snippet: In this study, we have constructed a novel EIR transmission model to stimulate the epidemic spreading. On the trajectory of simulating curve of baseline scenario, the peak number of infected population of 2019-nCoV will be 49093 on Feb 16, and it could be securely contained the spread of infection under the current draconian intervention measures. However, these intervention measures should be kept for about 2 months until the end of April. And e.....
Document: In this study, we have constructed a novel EIR transmission model to stimulate the epidemic spreading. On the trajectory of simulating curve of baseline scenario, the peak number of infected population of 2019-nCoV will be 49093 on Feb 16, and it could be securely contained the spread of infection under the current draconian intervention measures. However, these intervention measures should be kept for about 2 months until the end of April. And extremely draconian level prevention measures should be kept at least an incubation period after the infected population peak. In the baseline scenario, the government takes the strict prevention actions, the estimate numbers fit the official numbers very well. There can be no . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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