Selected article for: "infected individual and SEIR model"
Author: Hao Xiong; Huili Yan
Title: Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model
  • Document date: 2020_2_12
    • ID: er3zmcz2_7
    Snippet: Until now, we still know little about the infectiousness of 2019-nCoV. The most worrisome aspect is the infectiousness of incubation (or exposed) individuals. That means, the incubation individual is being infected and maybe has the ability of infectiousness but without symptom. However, the existing forecasting model, Susceptible-Exposed-Identified-Recovered (SEIR) model, assumes that the exposed individual is being infected but without infectio.....
    Document: Until now, we still know little about the infectiousness of 2019-nCoV. The most worrisome aspect is the infectiousness of incubation (or exposed) individuals. That means, the incubation individual is being infected and maybe has the ability of infectiousness but without symptom. However, the existing forecasting model, Susceptible-Exposed-Identified-Recovered (SEIR) model, assumes that the exposed individual is being infected but without infectiousness. And other forecasting model, such as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, even doesn't consider the exposed process. So, maybe traditional transmission models of epidemic spreading are not suit for 2019-nCoV. That is a possible key reason for why the estimating infected population based on SEIR model are too far more than the official number. The estimate number is 75815 individuals in Jan. 25 2020 [4] while the official number is only 688 individuals; the estimate number is 190000 individuals in Wuhan in Feb. 4th 2020 [5] while the official number is only 1967 individuals. Furthermore, the forecasting model also should consider the effect of the prevention measures.

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