Author: Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu
Title: Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation Document date: 2020_2_29
ID: aoqyx8mk_48
Snippet: From the detailed data description, we can obtain the transmission chains over the time, which enable to calculate the control reproduction number under the implementation of stringent control strategies. The mean control reproduction number ranges from 1.48 to 1.69, and the distribution of these chains agrees well with the effective reproduction number. Note that the effective number has been declining, and is less than unity since January 27 th.....
Document: From the detailed data description, we can obtain the transmission chains over the time, which enable to calculate the control reproduction number under the implementation of stringent control strategies. The mean control reproduction number ranges from 1.48 to 1.69, and the distribution of these chains agrees well with the effective reproduction number. Note that the effective number has been declining, and is less than unity since January 27 th 2020. Recently it has stabilized at almost zero, meaning that no new infections occur, which seem to be in line with real data, as shown in Figures 1 and 7 [7] .
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