An India-specific Compartmental Model for Covid-19: Projections and Intervention Strategies by Incorporating Geographical, Infrastructural and Response Heterogeneity

Gupta, Sanit; Shah, Sahil; Chaturvedi, Sumit; Thakkar, Pranav; Solanki, Parvinder; Dibyachintan, Soham; Roy, Sandeepan; Sushma, M. B.; Godbole, Adwait; Jaseem, Noufal; Kumar, Pradumn; Ravikanti, Sucheta; Das, Aritra; Babu, Giridhara R.; Bhatnagar, Tarun; Maji, Avijit; Mitra, Mithun K.; Vinjanampathy, Sai

We present a compartmental meta-population model for the spread of Covid-19 in India. Our model simulates populations at a district or state level using an epidemiological model that is appropriate to Covid-19. Different districts are connected by a transportation matrix developed using available census data. We introduce uncertainties in the testing rates into the model that takes into account the disparate responses of the different states to the epidemic and also factors in the state of the public healthcare system. Our model allows us to generate qualitative projections of Covid-19 spread in India, and further allows us to investigate the effects of different proposed interventions. By building in heterogeneity at geographical and infrastructural levels and in local responses, our model aims to capture some of the complexity of epidemiological modeling appropriate to a diverse country such as India.