Competing control scenarios in probabilistic SIR epidemics on social-contact networks

Broekaert, Jan B.; Torre, Davide La; Hafiz, Faizal

A probabilistic approach to epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual structure and number of social contacts (`ego networks') and the individual infection and recovery rates according to age or medical preconditions. Within our probabilistic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model on social-contact networks, we evaluate the infection load and activation margin of control scenarios; by confinement, by vaccination, and by their combination. We compare the epidemic burden for sub-populations which apply competing or co-operative control scenarios. The simulation experiments are conducted on randomised social-contact graphs designed with realistic person-person characteristics and following near homogeneous or block-localised sub-population spreading. Observed control scenario interactions and Nash equilibria in the two sub-population spreadings are discussed.