Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation

Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu

Xi'an city, few cases are in the northern part of Shaanxi while relatively many cases are in the southern part of Shaanxi, which is adjacent to Hubei province. Therefore, we can estimate the impact of population migration on the epidemic situation in the neighboring areas of Hubei Figure 7 (A). It is interesting to note that we can get the part of new infections before February 12 th , 2020 from the recoded traced data in Shaanxi province, shown in Figure 7 (B). It shows that the estimated new infections agree well with the traced data in terms of trend. We note that for some cases, their information is not complete, only the dates of illness onset or first medical visit are recorded, and hence they cannot be considered as new infections at certain dates. That is why the real new infections from traced data are less than the estimated ones, shown in Figure 7 (B).