Author: Marina Voinson; Alexandra Alvergne; Sylvain Billiard; Charline Smadi
Title: Stochastic dynamics of an epidemics with recurrent spillovers from an endemic reservoir Document date: 2017_11_3
ID: b2f3a8un_43
Snippet: When mp c is large, then the probability that the excursion is not an outbreak, (1 − p c ) m , is small leading to a large outbreak consuming a large number 240 of susceptible individuals. Then few outbreaks will emerge. In Figure 7a , when τ is large (τ > 10 −2 ), that is to say when a large number of spillover transmissions (m) arise, only one outbreak is observed because the large number of spillovers prevents the outbreak from dying out.....
Document: When mp c is large, then the probability that the excursion is not an outbreak, (1 − p c ) m , is small leading to a large outbreak consuming a large number 240 of susceptible individuals. Then few outbreaks will emerge. In Figure 7a , when τ is large (τ > 10 −2 ), that is to say when a large number of spillover transmissions (m) arise, only one outbreak is observed because the large number of spillovers prevents the outbreak from dying out.
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