Disease Outbreaks: Critical Biological Factors and Control Strategies

Kawashima, Kent; Matsumoto, Tomotaka; Akashi, Hiroshi

Disease outbreaks remain a major threat to human health and welfare especially in urban areas in both developed and developing countries. A large body of theoretical work has been devoted to modeling disease emergence, and critical factors that predict outbreak occurrence and severity have been proposed. In this chapter, we focus on biological factors that underlie both theoretical models and urban planning. We describe the SARS 2002–2003 pandemic as a case study of epidemic control of a human infectious disease. We then describe theoretical analyses of disease dynamics and control strategies. An important conclusion is that epidemic control will be strongly dependent on particular aspects of pathogen biology including host breadth, virulence, incubation time, and/or mutation rate. The probability, and potential cost, of future outbreaks, may be high and lessons from both past cases and theoretical work should inform urban design and policy. Interdisciplinary collaboration in planning, swiftness of information dissemination and response, and willingness to forgo personal liberties during a crisis may be key factors in resilience to infectious disease outbreaks.