Energy Security Assessment of Emerging Economies under Global and Local Challenges

Sotnyk, Iryna Kurbatova Tetiana Kubatko Oleksandr Prokopenko Olha Prause Gunnar Kovalenko Yevhen Trypolska Galyna Pysmenna Uliana

This paper proposes methodological approaches to assessing the impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency development on emerging economies’ energy security. It is suggested to supplement the current methodology for assessing energy security with the decoupling index of the renewable energy financial burden on the state budget, the energy efficiency decoupling index, the households’ energy poverty indicator, the index of capacity development for balancing electricity generation volumes, and the energy fluctuations indicator. These indices provide a comprehensive assessment of energy security under the latest challenges. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic in the Ukrainian energy sector led to the “green and coal paradox”, when the government decided to keep green electricity generation but limit nuclear generation. It required increased flexible capacities (thermal generation) and led to a rise in electricity prices and environmental pollution. Forecasting energy fluctuations with Butterworth filters allows minimizing the risks of maximum peak loads on the grid and timely prevention of emergencies. The energy fluctuations within the 20% range guarantee energy security and optimal energy companies’ operation. It is proposed to smooth out energy consumption fluctuations through green energy development, smart grids formation, energy efficiency improvements, and energy capacities balancing to ensure energy and economic sustainability.