Author: Xiaolin Zhu; Aiyin Zhang; Shuai Xu; Pengfei Jia; Xiaoyue Tan; Jiaqi Tian; Tao Wei; Zhenxian Quan; Jiali Yu
Title: Spatially Explicit Modeling of 2019-nCoV Epidemic Trend based on Mobile Phone Data in Mainland China Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: 6u9q0ox9_10
Snippet: Our modified SIR model has four parameters: transmission rate 1 among local residents, 2 among people with Wuhan travel history, decay rate a, and recovery rate . For , we assume that once an infected individual is hospitalized, the person will be segregated and therefore no longer infectious. According to a recent study using the first 425 patients 1 , the mean incubation period of 2019-nCoV is 5.2 days, and the mean duration from illness onset .....
Document: Our modified SIR model has four parameters: transmission rate 1 among local residents, 2 among people with Wuhan travel history, decay rate a, and recovery rate . For , we assume that once an infected individual is hospitalized, the person will be segregated and therefore no longer infectious. According to a recent study using the first 425 patients 1 , the mean incubation period of 2019-nCoV is 5.2 days, and the mean duration from illness onset to hospital admission is 9.1 days. We assume that the incubation period and duration from illness onset to first medical visit is similar with these 425 infected cases. Therefore, the estimated infectious period is 5.2 + 9.1 = 14.3 days and equals 1/14.3 = 0.0699.
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