Author: Freeman, Alexandra LJ; Kerr, John; Recchia, Gabriel; Schneider, Claudia; Lawrence, Alice CE; Finikarides, Leila; Luoni, Giulia; Dryhurst, Sarah; Spiegelhalter, David J
ID: w6uzpvw2
Snippet: As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalised estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total n=5,520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information. The
Document: As increasing amounts of data accumulate on the effects of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 and the risk factors that lead to poor outcomes, it is possible to produce personalised estimates of the risks faced by groups of people with different characteristics. The challenge of how to communicate these then becomes apparent. Based on empirical work (total n=5,520, UK) supported by in-person interviews with public and physicians, we make recommendations on the presentation of such information. These include: using predominantly percentages when communicating the absolute risk, but also providing (for balance) a format which conveys a higher perception of risk (expected frequency out of 10,000); using a visual linear scale cut at an appropriate point to illustrate the maximum risk, explained through an illustrative persona who might face that highest level of risk; and providing context to the absolute risk through presenting a range of other personas illustrating people who would face risks of a wide range of different levels. These personas should have their major risk factors (age, existing health conditions) described. By contrast, giving people absolute likelihoods of other risks they face in an attempt to add context was considered less helpful.
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