Cumulative effects of particulate matter pollution and meteorological variables on the risk of influenza-like illness in Bialystok, Poland

Toczylowski, K.; Wietlicka-Piszcz, M.; Grabowska, M.; Sulik, A.

The cold season is usually accompanied by an increased incidence of respiratory infections and increased air pollution from combustion sources. As we are facing the growing numbers of COVID-19 cases caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, an understanding of the impact of air pollutants and meteorological variables on the incidence of respiratory infections is crucial. The influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence might be used as a close proxy for the circulation of influenza viruses. Recently, SARS-CoV-2 has also been detected in patients with ILI. Using distributed lag nonlinear models, we analyzed the association between ILI, meteorological variables and particulate matter concentration in Bialystok, Poland, from 2013-2019. We found an exponential relation between cumulative PM2.5 pollution and the incidence of ILI that remained significant after adjusting for air temperatures and a long-term trend. Pollution had the greatest effect during the same week, but the risk of ILI was increased for the four following weeks. The risk of ILI was also increased by low air temperatures, low absolute humidity, and high wind speed. Altogether, our results show that all measures implemented to decrease PM2.5 concentrations would be beneficial to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory infections.