Author: Jamshidi, B.; Jamshidi Zargaran, S.; Talaei-Khoei, A.; Kakavandi, M.
Title: Modelling and Forecasting The Number of Confirmed Cases and Deaths from COVID-19 Pandemic in USA from April 12th to May 21st, 2020 Cord-id: x7yb1rq0 Document date: 2020_11_4
ID: x7yb1rq0
Snippet: In the present paper, our objective is to forecast the spread of the pandemic of COVID-19 in terms of the number of confirmed cases and deaths. The paper is based on a two-part to model the time series of the daily relative increments whose second part solely models the pattern of the death rate. All the simulations and calculations have been done in MatLab R2015b, and the average curves and confidence intervals are calculated based on 100 simulations of the fitted models. Our results establish
Document: In the present paper, our objective is to forecast the spread of the pandemic of COVID-19 in terms of the number of confirmed cases and deaths. The paper is based on a two-part to model the time series of the daily relative increments whose second part solely models the pattern of the death rate. All the simulations and calculations have been done in MatLab R2015b, and the average curves and confidence intervals are calculated based on 100 simulations of the fitted models. Our results establish that the cumulative number of confirmed cases reach 1464729 cases on 21 May 2020, with 80% confidence interval of [1375362 1540424], and the number of new confirmed cases decreases to the interval [12801 22578] with the probability of 80% (the point prediction is equal to 17551) on 21 May 2020. Finally, we forecast that the cumulative number of deaths from 18747 cases on 11 April increases to around 47000 cases on 21 May.
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