Selected article for: "early stage outbreak and stage outbreak"
Author: Ruiyun Li; Sen Pei; Bin Chen; Yimeng Song; Tao Zhang; Wan Yang; Jeffrey Shaman
Title: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
  • Document date: 2020_2_17
    • ID: 3nipr212_11
    Snippet: To infer COVID-19 transmission dynamics during the early stage of the outbreak, we simulated observations from January 10-23, 2020 (i.e. the period before the initiation of travel restrictions) using an iterated filter-ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (IF-EAKF) framework [9] [10] [11] . With this combined model-inference system, we estimated the trajectories of the four model state variables ( < , < , < A , < B ) for all 375 cities, while simult.....
    Document: To infer COVID-19 transmission dynamics during the early stage of the outbreak, we simulated observations from January 10-23, 2020 (i.e. the period before the initiation of travel restrictions) using an iterated filter-ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (IF-EAKF) framework [9] [10] [11] . With this combined model-inference system, we estimated the trajectories of the four model state variables ( < , < , < A , < B ) for all 375 cities, while simultaneously inferring the six model parameters (Z, D, , , , ). The initial prior ranges of the model parameters were drawn from uniform distributions of the following ranges: 2 ≤ ≤ 5 , 2 ≤ ≤ 5 , 0.2 ≤ ≤ 1, 0.6 ≤ ≤ 1.5, 0.02 ≤ ≤ 0.8, 1 ≤ ≤ 1.75.

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