Author: Ralf Engbert; Maximilian M. Rabe; Reinhold Kliegl; Sebastian Reich
Title: Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 855am0mv_9
Snippet: Finally, the overall time-dependence β * (t k ) shows a decreasing trend, however, Figure 2c suggests that there is an additional weekly cycle with local minima at weekends (March 22 and 29). Both of the example regions show this effect as well. For the RKI data, we do not expect that seemingly reduced contact parameters are a simple consequence of increased reporting delay over the weekend, since this database is continuously updating the repor.....
Document: Finally, the overall time-dependence β * (t k ) shows a decreasing trend, however, Figure 2c suggests that there is an additional weekly cycle with local minima at weekends (March 22 and 29). Both of the example regions show this effect as well. For the RKI data, we do not expect that seemingly reduced contact parameters are a simple consequence of increased reporting delay over the weekend, since this database is continuously updating the reported cases back in time (see RKI data on COVID-19 in Germany).
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