Dynamics analysis and countermeasures of covid-19 epidemic

Chu, S.; Liu, M.; Wang, B.; Zhao, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, J.; Zhao, B.

2019 the outbreak of New Coronavirus pneumonia COVID-19 in Wuhan is characterized by high infectivity, long incubation period and high mortality rate. It seriously interferes with the normal production activities during the outbreak. Therefore, it is of great significance to study its transmission mechanism and the future development trend. In this paper, the SEIR model of new coronavirus was established, and the value assignment method and least square method were used to solve the model. The fitting results and the real value had a good match, indicating that the model was more reasonable. The epidemic data of Wuhan, Guangdong and Brazil were analyzed and predicted respectively. The analysis found that the epidemic situation in Wuhan was basically stable;the epidemic situation in Guangdong was relatively late, and the control was relatively timely. The epidemic situation in Brazil started in the middle of March, so the mortality rate continued to rise from March to April, but the cure rate remained low. The epidemic prevention and control suggestions were put forward to Wuhan, Guangdong and Brazil respectively. The theoretical analysis of the model shows that prevention and control isolation and medical tracking isolation play an important role in inhibiting the large-scale spread of the epidemic. In addition, individuals improve their awareness of prevention and take strict self-protection measures to curb the increase in the number of infected people. The SEIR epidemic model of the new coronavirus established in this paper can be used for covid-19 The purpose of this study is to provide theoretical support for making future intervention decisions. © 2021 ACM.