Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate

Miguel B. Araujo; Babak Naimi

Local transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus were plotted against monthly values of climate predictors revealing aggregation within a relatively narrow range of climatic values (Figure 1 ). Comparing daily spread of the virus across geographical space versus climatic space reveals stronger aggregation in climate space than in geographical space. That is, while the virus is progressively colonizing most parts of the world, thus being geographically widespread, local infections were still prevalent within a relatively narrow set of environmental conditions ( Figure 2 ). The uneven colonization of geographic versus climatic space, invites the interpretation that climate is acting as a stronger constraint for the spread of the virus than geographical distances are. Most local transmissions occur in regions exposed to cool and dry conditions-measured both through evapotranspiration and precipitation-, and near the lower end of the radiation gradient (but rho with temperature = 0.78).