Author: Roman Marchant; Noelle I Samia; Ori Rosen; Martin A Tanner; Sally Cripps
Title: Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: ijac68gh_8
Snippet: Figure 1 graphically represents the discrepancy between the actual number of deaths and the 95% PIs for deaths, by state for the dates March 30 through to April 2. The color in these figures shows whether the actual death counts were less than the lower limit of the 95% PI (blue), or within the 95% PI (white), or above the upper limit of the 95% PI (red). The depth of the red/blue color denotes the number of actual death counts above/below the PI.....
Document: Figure 1 graphically represents the discrepancy between the actual number of deaths and the 95% PIs for deaths, by state for the dates March 30 through to April 2. The color in these figures shows whether the actual death counts were less than the lower limit of the 95% PI (blue), or within the 95% PI (white), or above the upper limit of the 95% PI (red). The depth of the red/blue color denotes the number of actual death counts above/below the PI. A deep red signifies that a large number of deaths were above the upper limit of the 95% PI, while a light red indicates a smaller number. Similarly, a deep blue signifies that a large number of deaths were below the lower limit of the 95% PI, while a light blue indicates a smaller number.
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