Selected article for: "death count and time series"
Author: Ives, A. R.; Bozzuto, C.
Title: State-by-State estimates of R0 at the start of COVID-19 outbreaks in the USA
  • Cord-id: ygq75t1n
  • Document date: 2020_5_22
    • ID: ygq75t1n
    Snippet: We estimated the initial basic reproduction number (R0) for States in the USA experiencing COVID-19 epidemics by analyzing death data time series using a time-varying autoregressive state-space model. The initial R0 varied greatly among States, with the highest R0 = 8.3 in New York State. The variation in initial R0 was strongly correlated with the peak daily death count among States, showing that the initial R0 anticipates subsequent challenges in controlling epidemics. Furthermore, the variati
    Document: We estimated the initial basic reproduction number (R0) for States in the USA experiencing COVID-19 epidemics by analyzing death data time series using a time-varying autoregressive state-space model. The initial R0 varied greatly among States, with the highest R0 = 8.3 in New York State. The variation in initial R0 was strongly correlated with the peak daily death count among States, showing that the initial R0 anticipates subsequent challenges in controlling epidemics. Furthermore, the variation in initial R0 implies different needs for public health measures. Finally, the States that relaxed public health measures early were not those with the lowest risks of resurgence, highlighting the need for science to guide public health policies.

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