Safe Blues: The case for virtual safe virus spread in the long-term fight against epidemics

Dandekar, Raj; Henderson, Shane G.; Jansen, Hermanus M.; McDonald, Joshua; Moka, Sarat; Nazarathy, Yoni; Rackauckas, Christopher; Taylor, Peter G.; Vuorinen, Aapeli

Viral spread is a complicated function of biological properties, the environment, preventative measures such as sanitation and masks, and the rate at which individuals come within physical proximity. It is these last two elements that governments can control through social-distancing directives. However, infection measurements are almost always delayed, making real-time estimation nearly impossible. Safe Blues is one way of addressing the problem caused by this time lag via online measurements combined with machine learning methods that exploit the relationship between counts of multiple forms of the Safe Blues strands and the progress of the actual epidemic. The Safe Blues protocols and techniques have been developed together with an experimental minimal viable product, presented as an app on Android devices with a server backend. Following initial exploration via simulation experiments, we are now preparing for a university-wide experiment of Safe Blues.