Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Iyaniwura, S. A.; Rabiu, M. A.; David, J.; Kong, J. D.

Adherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions imple-mented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is alsoimportant in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, wedeveloped an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Ourmodel considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population intotwo groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and thosethat do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the finalepidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model onthese quantities. Our results show that direct transmission has more effect on the reproductionnumber and final epidemic size, relative to indirect transmission. In addition, we showed thatthere is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPis.