Selected article for: "ICU capacity reach and mitigation strategy"
Author: Alex James; Shaun C Hendy; Michael J Plank; Nicholas Steyn
Title: Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: gc5ieskk_17
    Snippet: We therefore tested the consequences of uncertainty in the effectiveness of strong control measures (Fig. 5) , and in the timing of the trigger for initiating strong control (Fig. 6 ). If strong control only reduces Rc to 1.2, following the same strong/weak protocol as in Fig. 4 does not succeed in keeping (Fig. 5a) , although it does still achieve a major reduction in peak size and overall mortality relative to the uncontrolled case. The outcome.....
    Document: We therefore tested the consequences of uncertainty in the effectiveness of strong control measures (Fig. 5) , and in the timing of the trigger for initiating strong control (Fig. 6 ). If strong control only reduces Rc to 1.2, following the same strong/weak protocol as in Fig. 4 does not succeed in keeping (Fig. 5a) , although it does still achieve a major reduction in peak size and overall mortality relative to the uncontrolled case. The outcome can be improved slightly by triggering strong control earlier (Fig. 5b , strong control initiated when ICU cases reach 50% of capacity). If strong control only reduces Rc to 1.5 (Fig. 5c) , even with the earlier trigger, the mitigation strategy fails as hospital capacity is substantially exceeded and the population mortality increases to 1.0% (almost double that for Fig. 4) .

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