Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_54
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 In Fig. 5 , if the current trend as of February 12 th continues, the epidemics in Hubei Province could have become endemic and not been contained in one year. When ′ is reduced by 25% in Scenario 2, the number of infectious cases in Hubei Province would reach the peak at day 22 on average (median: 24, and fade out at around day 250 in Fig. 5(c.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 In Fig. 5 , if the current trend as of February 12 th continues, the epidemics in Hubei Province could have become endemic and not been contained in one year. When ′ is reduced by 25% in Scenario 2, the number of infectious cases in Hubei Province would reach the peak at day 22 on average (median: 24, and fade out at around day 250 in Fig. 5(c) . Reducing the average node degree inside each city from 15 to 10, the epidemic would reach the peak at around day 21 (median: 24, and fade out at day 150 on average. When a combination of reducing ′ and average node degree is conducted in scenario 4, the number of infectious cases would reach the peak at around day 19 (median: 23, , and the number of removed cases would approximate the actual epidemic trajectory in Hubei Province in the steady-state as shown in Fig. 5 (e) .
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