Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_62
Snippet: On the other hand, these two methods with different distributions but with the same mean infectious period lead to inconsistent results. Since the actual infectious period and incubation period do not follow exponential distributions, these simulations suggest that future works need to consider distributions of epidemiological characteristics to better capture the COVID-19 spreading trajectory. Instead of taking mean values derived from clinical .....
Document: On the other hand, these two methods with different distributions but with the same mean infectious period lead to inconsistent results. Since the actual infectious period and incubation period do not follow exponential distributions, these simulations suggest that future works need to consider distributions of epidemiological characteristics to better capture the COVID-19 spreading trajectory. Instead of taking mean values derived from clinical studies as input to the epidemic models, researchers need to take into account the empirically derived distribution of the parameters.
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