Author: Jacyna, G.; Thompson, J. R.; Koehler, M.; Slater, D. M.
Title: Analytical Model of COVID-19 for lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions Cord-id: 0r41e75c Document date: 2020_8_4
ID: 0r41e75c
Snippet: In the present work, we outline a set of coarse-grain analytical models that can be used by decision-makers to bound the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on specific communities with known or estimated social contact structure and to assess the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions on slowing the progression of disease spread. This work provides a multi-dimensional view of the problem by examining steady-state and dynamic disease spread using a network-based approach. In a
Document: In the present work, we outline a set of coarse-grain analytical models that can be used by decision-makers to bound the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on specific communities with known or estimated social contact structure and to assess the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions on slowing the progression of disease spread. This work provides a multi-dimensional view of the problem by examining steady-state and dynamic disease spread using a network-based approach. In addition, Bayesian-based estimation procedures are used to provide a realistic assessment of the severity of outbreaks based on estimates of the average and instantaneous basic reproduction number R0.
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