Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde
Title: Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: h86mpz6o_10
Snippet: The best, almost entirely observation-based, forecast for the evolution of COVID19 in Germany, under the assumption that RSC do not change, can be obtained from …tting a Gompertzcurve model to the data. The Gompertz curve is a reduced form, non-linear trend model which is characterized by an upper saturation point which is estimated endogenously. The model displays a double exponential form with three parameters and a time index t; y t = ae be .....
Document: The best, almost entirely observation-based, forecast for the evolution of COVID19 in Germany, under the assumption that RSC do not change, can be obtained from …tting a Gompertzcurve model to the data. The Gompertz curve is a reduced form, non-linear trend model which is characterized by an upper saturation point which is estimated endogenously. The model displays a double exponential form with three parameters and a time index t; y t = ae be ct :
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