Integrating Risk Assessment and Decision‐Making Methods in Analyzing the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Epidemics in Davao City, Mindanao Island, Philippines

Logrosa, Gernelyn; Mata, May Anne; Lachica, Zython Paul; Estaña, Leo Manuel; Hassall, Maureen

The COVID‐19 pandemic has become a public health crisis in the Philippines and the attention of national and local health authorities is focused on managing the fluctuating COVID‐19 cases. This study presents a method that integrates risk management tools into health care decision‐making processes to enhance the understanding and utilization of risk‐based thinking in public health decision making. The risk assessment consists of the identification of the key risk factors of the COVID‐19 contagion via bow‐tie diagrams. Second, the safety controls for each risk factor relevant to the Davao City context are taken into account and are identified as barriers in the bow‐tie. After which, the prioritization of the identified COVID‐19 risks, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed interventions, is performed using the analytic hierarchy process. Consequently, the dynamics of COVID‐19 management initiatives were explored using these priorities and a system of ordinary differential equations. Our results show that reducing the number of COVID‐19 fatalities should be the top priority of the health authorities. In turn, we predict that the COVID‐19 contagion can be controlled and eliminated in Davao city in three‐month time after prioritizing the fatalities. In order to reduce the COVID‐19 fatalities, health authorities should ensure an adequate number of COVID‐ready ICU facilities. The general public, on the other hand, should follow medical and science‐based advice and suspected and confirmed COVID‐19 patients should strictly follow isolation protocols. Overall, an informed decision‐making is necessary to avoid the unwanted consequences of an uncontrolled contagion.