Author: Emma E Glennon; Freya L Jephcott; Alexandra Oti; Colin J Carlson; Fausto A Bustos Carillo; C Reed Hranac; Edyth Parker; James L N Wood; Olivier Restif
Title: Syndromic detectability of haemorrhagic fever outbreaks Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: 1ecdj314_8
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20019463 doi: medRxiv preprint ( Fig. 4-B) . while we were frequently able to predict the true aetiology from limited dengue and malaria 285 outbreak data, performance was less accurate for typhoid fever. Given more outbreak data-286 in terms of quantity, syndromes represented, and consistency of clinical feature reporting-287 we expect to be able to improve the sensitivi.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20019463 doi: medRxiv preprint ( Fig. 4-B) . while we were frequently able to predict the true aetiology from limited dengue and malaria 285 outbreak data, performance was less accurate for typhoid fever. Given more outbreak data-286 in terms of quantity, syndromes represented, and consistency of clinical feature reporting-287 we expect to be able to improve the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the algorithm for 288 categorising real outbreak data. As is, however, our mechanistic approach still enables strong 289 insights into the relationships among outbreak detection, case definitions and the values of 290 clinical features for disease identification, and local endemic context. 291 292 A central challenge to developing this approach has been the lack of standardised clinical 293 data, especially given the high dimensionality of our model. For example, we have been 294 unable to gather comparable data on non-communicable diseases or toxic aetiologies. 295
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