County-level factors influence the trajectory of Covid-19 incidence

Kranjac, A. W.; Kranjac, D.

With new cases of Covid-19 surging in the United States, we need to better understand how the spread of novel coronavirus varies across all segments of the population. We use hierarchical exponential growth curve modeling techniques to examine whether community social and economic characteristics uniquely influence the incidence of Covid-19 cases in the urban built environment. We show that, as of May 3, 2020, confirmed coronavirus infections are concentrated along demographic and socioeconomic lines in New York City and surrounding areas, the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Furthermore, we see evidence that, after the onset of the pandemic, timely enactment of physical distancing measures such as school closures is imperative in order to limit the extent of the coronavirus spread in the population. Public health authorities must impose nonpharmaceutical measures early on in the pandemic and consider community-level factors that associate with a greater risk of viral transmission.