Targeted adaptive isolation strategy for Covid-19 pandemic

Zoltan Neufeld; Hamid Khataee

where the parameter k characterises the probability of transmission of infection from the infected (I) to the susceptible (S) fraction of the population, and γ is the rate of recovery, which is assumed to lead to immunity or death ((R)). The behavior of the model depends on a single non-dimensional parameter R 0 = k/γ which is the number of new infections caused by a single infected in a fully susceptible population. The condition for an epidemic outbreak is R 0 > 1, otherwise the infection dies out monotonously. Typical estimates of R 0 for the COVID epidemic are roughly in the range 2 − 3.5 [3] [4] [5] . We will use γ = 0.1 day −1 consistent with a typical recovery time of around 1 − 2 weeks [3] [4] [5] . A few example solutions of the model (1) for different values of R 0 are shown in Fig. 1(a) .