Author: Zoltan Neufeld; Hamid Khataee
Title: Targeted adaptive isolation strategy for Covid-19 pandemic Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: 80d9p4j8_5
Snippet: If the reduced R 0 is still larger than unity, the result is a smaller epidemic outbreak, with lower total infected fraction of the population I total = 1 − S(∞), and lower peak value of the infected fraction. The total infected population is the solution of the transcendental equation: ln(1 − I total ) + I total = 0. A side effect of this reduction, however, is that the duration of the epidemic outbreak increases significantly. The depende.....
Document: If the reduced R 0 is still larger than unity, the result is a smaller epidemic outbreak, with lower total infected fraction of the population I total = 1 − S(∞), and lower peak value of the infected fraction. The total infected population is the solution of the transcendental equation: ln(1 − I total ) + I total = 0. A side effect of this reduction, however, is that the duration of the epidemic outbreak increases significantly. The dependence of the peak infected fraction and the time to reach maximum infection are shown in Fig. 1(b) . For example, starting with a reference value R 0 = 2.4, the time to peak infection is around 65 days. Reducing R 0 to 1.2, extends the time to peak infection to ∼ 320 days, while the maximum infected fraction is reduced from ∼ 22% to ∼ 1.5% and the total infected by the end of the epidemic decreases from ∼ 90% to ∼ 30%. Decreasing R 0 by social distancing reduces the total infections and the peak infected fraction, which is critical due to limited hospital capacity, but it has the following possible drawbacks:
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- epidemic end and infected fraction: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- epidemic end and infected population: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- epidemic end and infection peak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- epidemic end and infection peak time: 1
- epidemic outbreak and hospital capacity: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- epidemic outbreak and infected fraction: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- epidemic outbreak and infected population: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- epidemic outbreak and infection peak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- epidemic outbreak and limited hospital capacity: 1
- epidemic outbreak and maximum infection: 1
- epidemic outbreak duration and infected population: 1, 2
- epidemic outbreak duration and infection peak: 1
- hospital capacity and infected population: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
- hospital capacity and infection peak: 1, 2, 3
- hospital capacity and limited hospital capacity: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- infected fraction and maximum infected fraction: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- infected fraction and maximum infection: 1, 2, 3
- infected population and maximum infected fraction: 1, 2, 3, 4
- infected population and maximum infection: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date