Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission

Alessio Notari

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044529 doi: medRxiv preprint The data were collected from [9]. We then fit the data for each country with a simple exponential curve N (t) = N 0 e αt , with 2 parameters, N 0 and α; here t is in units of days. In the fit we used Poissonian errors, given by √ N , on the daily counting of cases. We associated then to each country an average temperature T , for the relevant weeks, which we took from [10]. More precisely: if for a given country the average T is tabulated only for its capital city, we directly used such a value. If, instead, more cities are present for a given country, we used an average of the temperatures of the main cities, weighted by their population [11] . For most countries we used the average temperature for the month of March, with a few exceptions [12] .