Author: Vazquez, A.
Title: Exact solution for the infection dynamics with a gamma distribution of serial intervals Cord-id: 3dayhwck Document date: 2020_10_20
ID: 3dayhwck
Snippet: The basic reproductive number, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected individual, is used to forecast infectious disease outbreaks. Yet, the basic reproductive number does not contain information about the incubation period, which influences the serial interval between infection and transmission. Using gamma distributions of serial intervals, I derive a formula to calculate the population reproductive number as a function of the basic reproductive number and the shape pa
Document: The basic reproductive number, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected individual, is used to forecast infectious disease outbreaks. Yet, the basic reproductive number does not contain information about the incubation period, which influences the serial interval between infection and transmission. Using gamma distributions of serial intervals, I derive a formula to calculate the population reproductive number as a function of the basic reproductive number and the shape parameter of the serial interval distribution. This formula can be used to estimate the basic reproductive number from the serial interval distribution and the disease doubling time.
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