Susceptibility and Sustainability of India against CoVid19: a multivariate approach

Soumi Ray; Mitu Roy

Not all the affected countries are equally prone to CoVid19 as per the report of WHO. Though our preceding analyses have failed to find any strong relationship between the discussed parameters and this pandemic, the presence of some factors influencing the rate of spread of this infection and death rate is obvious. A literature [17] showed some hope in its study of relation between CoVid19 and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BGC) vaccination. We have repeated that study to find the relation with present scenario. The work was reported in the middle of March when many countries were not as affected as of today. The scenario in USA has changed dramatically in the last 3 weeks; India also has shown significant increase in the number of infected cases in the last 15 days. Hence, the repetition of the analysis is necessary before concluding any decision. Our study has shown that vaccination has good impact in most of the cases but there are many exceptions too. The comparison is presented in the figure 5. France, Iran, Ireland, Portugal and Sweden have significant death toll even after having good history of vaccination. On the contrary, Australia and Canada have quite low death rate without vaccination program. Hence the hypothesis of any direct relation between BCG vaccination and CoVid19 has been rejected. A further, in depth analysis including more details of vaccination program, coverage of the population, specially in the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.