Susceptibility and Sustainability of India against CoVid19: a multivariate approach

Soumi Ray; Mitu Roy

India has imposed quarantine through locked down for 21 days starting from 23 rd of March 2020. In last 15 days the number of cases as well as death has increased significantly. The lockdown do restrict the community transmission but the rate is increasing may be because of detection of already infected cases. Fast identification of old cases is required to access the effect of isolation on infection transmission rate. The mortality and morbidity ratio may be affected by the immune system of a population and will vary with different life style factors starting from food habits, common diseases, vaccination programs etc. In the high altitude areas (mainly the Himalayan region) with low temperature throughout the year, the risk is higher as per our analysis. February, March are not tourism season of these Himalayan region of India because of chilling cold, road blockage due to snowfall and for academic session ending with examinations. Probably due to little tourist flow, these regions are still not reporting cases of CoVid19. Once the severity of pandemic will fall and the country will start resuming its normal life, the free movement of tourists can be a threat for those hilly areas and it could ignite a reappearance of the disease in cities too through the returned tourists. A proper protection plan and . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.