COVID-19: A model for studying the evolution of contamination in Brazil

Schulz, Rodrigo A.; Coimbra-Ara'ujo, Carlos H.; Costiche, Samuel W. S.

In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka"novel coronavirus"). The SIR (Susceptible - Infectious - Recovered) model is used as a basis for studying the evolution of the epidemic. Nevertheless, we have modified some of the model hypotheses in order to obtain an estimate of the contamination free of overestimated predictions. This extended model is then applied to the case of the recent advance of the epidemic in Brazil. In this regard, it is possible to obtain the evolution for the number of infectious significantly close to that provided by current data. Accordingly, we evaluate possible future scenarios for the disease spread. Regarding the population susceptibility, we consider different social behaviors in response to quarantine measures and precautions to avoid contagion. We conclude that the future scenario of the epidemic depends significantly on the social behavior adopted to date, as well as on the contagion control measures. The extent of such measures would be likely to cause thousands, millions or tens of millions of contaminations in the next few months.