Modeling the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the Republic of Cyprus

Agapiou, Sergios; Anastasiou, Andreas; Baxevani, Anastassia; Nicolaides, Christos; Hadjigeorgiou, Georgios; Christofides, Tasos; Constantinou, Elisavet; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Fokianos, Konstantinos

We present different data analytic methodologies that have been applied in order to understand the evolution of the first wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 in the Republic of Cyprus and the effect of different intervention measures that have been taken by the government. Change point detection has been used in order to estimate the number and locations of changes in the behaviour of the collected data. Count time series methods have been employed to provide short term projections and a number of various compartmental models have been fitted to the data providing with long term projections on the pandemic’s evolution and allowing for the estimation of the effective reproduction number.