Author: Edward Goldstein; Marc Lipsitch
Title: Temporal rise in the proportion of both younger adults and older adolescents among COVID-19 cases in Germany: evidence of lesser adherence to social distancing practices? Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 5913rr94_30
Snippet: Our paper has some limitations. One limitation is that the ratio between the number of detected COVID-19 cases and incident cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection (case-detection rate) may vary with time in each age group. We believe that it is unlikely that this phenomenon is more pronounced for individuals aged 15-34y compared to persons aged 35-49 or 10-14y, namely that increases in the likelihood of seeking medical care or the likelihood of being test.....
Document: Our paper has some limitations. One limitation is that the ratio between the number of detected COVID-19 cases and incident cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection (case-detection rate) may vary with time in each age group. We believe that it is unlikely that this phenomenon is more pronounced for individuals aged 15-34y compared to persons aged 35-49 or 10-14y, namely that increases in the likelihood of seeking medical care or the likelihood of being tested for individuals aged 15-34y are substantially larger compared to individuals aged 35-49y or 10-14y. Therefor, the observed temporal increases in the relative share of individuals aged 15-34y among detected COVID-19 cases in persons aged 10-49y should be indicative of the actual increase in the prevalence of individuals aged 15-34y among SARS-CoV-2 infections in the German population aged 10-49y.
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