Logistic Approach to COVID - 19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil

DE ASSIS, A. S.; de Carvalho, V. J.

We study in this work the temporal evolution of local and global contaminated population by coronavirus. We access those information analytically and numerically using a logistic model. It is shown, using diferent data from The Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS), The World Health Organization - WHO, and The Niteroi Health Foundation (FMS), the contaminated population ramping-up curves, the population inflection, the population saturation - plateau regime, and also the time related to these population evolution regimes. Based on the simulations, approaches are proposed at this more advanced phase of the pandemic, which might generate effectiveness at the actions of society in general, in a way that those actions could generate effective and efficient results, and this means a more organized war against this pandemic, a better way to induce the economy resumption, and also to create a more intense public awareness on the contamination hubs and surges that may emerge due to the reduction of social isolation.